The Blackout Game: Why the US and the EU are studying solar Geoengineering
The United States and EU countries are exploring technologies that would allow them to reflect some of the sunlight and slow down global warming. So far, it's about research, not a decision to change the planet's climate. "Izvestia" has found out how feasible solar geoengineering is, what costs it may require and why its application can cause disputes between states.
Why the US and the EU are studying solar geoengineering
The authorities of the United States and the European Union are exploring ways to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth. According to Politico, such technologies are considered as a possible tool to combat global warming. The discussion of their prospects is conducted mainly behind closed doors.
One of the proposed methods of solar geoengineering is spraying particles in the upper atmosphere capable of reflecting some of the sun's rays. The researchers are also looking at changing the reflectivity of sea clouds. However, studying these approaches does not mean that the US or EU authorities have decided to apply them in practice.
Interest in such developments is growing against the background of temperature records. As reported by the European climate service Copernicus, the year 2025 was one of the warmest in the history of observations. According to her data, in 2023-2025, the average global temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees.
Technically, it is possible to reduce the amount of sunlight coming to Earth, but the practical effect of such an intervention raises questions, Alexander Rodin, executive director of the Scientific and Technical Center for Environmental Monitoring and Ecology at MIPT, told "Izvestia".
— To reduce the amount of sunlight that hits the Earth, you can, for example, spray special aerosols in the atmosphere. However, this will have a minuscule effect and for a very short time. Therefore, it is not worth seriously discussing such ideas," he emphasized.
The European Union also calls for separating research and technology application. The European Commission's scientific advisers recommended continuing to study solar geoengineering and its risks, but proposed a moratorium on the use of such methods because they are not yet ready for implementation.
How does solar geoengineering work and is it possible to "darken the Sun"
The most discussed method of solar geoengineering involves the introduction of particles into the stratosphere that would reflect some of the solar radiation back into space. Another option is to increase the reflectivity of clouds over the ocean. The goal of such projects is to reduce the average temperature of the planet, but there are different tasks to achieve the desired effect and predict its consequences.
Theoretically, humanity has several ways to influence global climate processes, said Nathan Eismont, a leading researcher at the Department of Space Dynamics and Mathematical Information Processing at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Each of them, according to the expert, requires an assessment of possible damage.
— There are different ways to solve this problem. For example, to dust the atmosphere. It really works, as shown by the cooling after volcanic eruptions. But major interventions in natural processes can lead to unpredictable consequences," he warned.
The scientist also mentioned the possibility of placing giant mirrors in orbit. Such a project would face technical difficulties and would require high costs.
Vladimir Reshetov, Chief Researcher at the Scientific Research Laboratory "Laser Technologies of Photonics" at the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, also considers space reflectors to be potentially possible. But he estimates the timing of their creation in a completely different way than in the case of atmospheric methods.
— The idea of putting materials reflecting or absorbing sunlight into low-Earth orbit is not new and is quite feasible at intervals of hundreds and thousands of years. A more difficult question is the stability of such a structure in space: very thin mirrors will be blown away not only by the solar wind, but also by ordinary solar radiation," the specialist explained.
He gave an example of an even more distant astroengineering plan — changing the Earth's orbit in the future, when the Sun itself transforms. This scenario refers to a time scale of billions of years and is not a way to solve the current problem of warming. The question facing solar geoengineering researchers today is much more specific: is it possible to achieve noticeable cooling using atmospheric methods and safely maintain it for the required time.
What are the environmental risks of solar geoengineering?
Even if the average temperature of the Earth decreases, the effects of the intervention may vary from region to region. Changes in the amount of sunlight can affect precipitation, ecosystems, and crop growing conditions. The European Commission's scientific advisers drew attention to these risks, urging them to continue research until decisions are made on the use of technology.
It also matters which substances are supposed to be introduced into the atmosphere. Among the options discussed is sulfur dioxide. It is capable of participating in the formation of light-reflecting particles, but requires a separate assessment of the chemical effects on the atmosphere. One of the concerns of scientists is the possible impact of some intervention scenarios on the ozone layer.
It is technically possible to spray an aerosol in a relatively short time, admitted Igor Shkradyuk, coordinator of the industrial greening program at the Wildlife Conservation Center. However, it is impossible to start a large-scale intervention without extensive research, he stressed.
— This requires reflective substances, such as sulfur dioxide. But any major interference in nature can have serious consequences, so science must calculate them," the ecologist noted.
Climate risks cannot be reduced solely to the safety of the selected substance. Even when cooling is achieved, it will be necessary to find out how precipitation and yields will change in different parts of the world. For Russia, the consequences for the Arctic and agricultural regions would require a separate study. The conclusion about a decrease in the average temperature of the planet does not describe what will happen in each of them.
In addition, the reflection of sunlight does not reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Therefore, solar geoengineering does not eliminate the cause of warming associated with the burning of fossil fuels. It is for this reason that even proponents of the research of such methods consider their possible effect separately from the reduction of emissions.
How much can solar geoengineering cost and who benefits from it?
The discussion of Earth cooling technologies is gradually moving beyond scientific laboratories. Private companies and investors are interested in their prospects. But financing the development does not mean that there is a working and safe way to control the temperature of the planet. There are different stages of research between the creation of a material, the verification of its properties and the continuous application on a global scale.
Igor Shkradyuk estimates that a major solar geoengineering project would require billions of dollars. However, future costs would not be limited to launching equipment and spraying the substance, but also monitoring the state of the atmosphere and assessing the consequences.
The economic issue also arises in connection with the rights to technology. If it is developed by private companies, states will have to decide who gets access to the test results, risk calculations and the methods of intervention themselves. The possible commercial value of such developments makes it particularly important to independently verify claims about their effectiveness.
Alexander Rodin called for considering the interest in the new technology in the broader context of competition in the energy markets. In his opinion, the climate agenda is related to the struggle for technological advantage, in which China plays a significant role.
— This country is a leader in the markets of advanced technologies in the so—called "green" energy - in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, wind turbines and batteries. On the other hand, the global West is also heavily rebuilding its energy mix," the expert pointed out.
China's strong position in clean energy is also confirmed by data provided by the Associated Press. In 2024, the country commissioned a record 357 GW of solar and wind energy capacity. At the same time, Rodin's assumption about the connection of geoengineering research with the US energy strategy remains his assessment. There is no data that would allow us to consider it the only motive for development.
Can climate management become a cause of international conflict
If one country decides to use solar geoengineering, the consequences may affect other countries as well. This raises questions about who has the right to allow such interference, how to assess its impact on individual regions, and who will be responsible for possible damage. At the same time, the study of the technology does not yet mean that the US or the EU have decided to use it for climate change.
Malek Dudakov, an American political scientist, believes that interest in such projects indicates the continued influence of supporters of the "green" agenda in the United States and Europe. Their motives, in his opinion, deserve a separate study, but an assessment of the intentions of the developers should not obscure the possible consequences of the technology itself.
— The story of solar radiation reflection, on the one hand, looks like a typical attempt to master budgets. However, if such technologies are actually implemented and prove effective, this could potentially lead to global consequences," he said.
According to Dudakov, a possible cooling will require special attention to the northern countries, including Russia. At the same time, there is no reason to assert that the developed methods can cause a sharp decrease in temperature or predictably change the climate of a particular region. The political scientist called for discussing the rules of their application at the international level in advance.
— It is necessary at the UN level to raise the issue of their use being regulated by international standards. It is desirable that all countries participate in this process and have the opportunity to express their position," the expert noted.
Vladimir Vasiliev, Chief Researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, draws attention to the security aspect. He admits that climate impact studies could theoretically be of interest to military departments.
— It cannot be ruled out that research related to climate weapons may be conducted in parallel. We can talk about managing climate processes as a way to solve certain military-technical tasks," the expert said.
However, the expert stressed that he had no data on the existence or use of systems capable of purposefully changing the climate of individual countries. The report on solar geoengineering research by itself does not confirm such conclusions either.
Even without military applications, technology can become a point of contention. To some states, the proposed cooling will seem like a necessary protection from the heat, while others fear changes in precipitation and conditions for agriculture. Therefore, international control becomes a central issue — the openness of the tests, countries' access to their results and the opportunity to discuss the risks before launching a large-scale intervention.
Thus, the interest in solar geoengineering is not evidence of the development of climate weapons. Theoretically, the ability to reduce the heating of the planet also does not mean the ability to cause drought in the selected region. As noted by the Associated Press, the management of individual major weather events remains beyond the limits of modern human capabilities.
However, a political dispute may arise already around the tests themselves. Some States may consider the research necessary against the background of rising temperatures, while others may demand that it be stopped due to the risk to agriculture and water resources.
Transparency issues are becoming key for Russia and other countries.: who reports on experiments, who verifies the results, and how states will be able to raise objections before possible intervention. While there are no agreed answers, solar geoengineering remains a subject of research, economic interest, and potential international controversy.
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