Alternative integration: the success of the AfD in the elections may increase pressure on the party

Alternative for Germany has won a historic victory in the elections in Saxony-Anhalt, getting the chance to form a federal state government for the first time. The AFD candidate for the post of regional prime minister, Ulrich Sigmund, during the campaign opposed anti-Russian sanctions, called for a return to diplomacy and the resumption of gas purchases from the Russian Federation. After this triumph, pressure on the party from opponents will increase, and disputes about its possible ban may flare up with renewed vigor, Bundestag deputies from the AFD told Izvestia. Already on September 20, voting will take place in Berlin and Mecklenburg—Vorpommern, where the right-wing also claims a high result. The string of successes of the AFD can not only change the internal balance of power in Germany, but also force Berlin to reconsider its foreign policy course towards Moscow.

AfD moves closer to power in Saxony-Anhalt

For the first time in history, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the land elections in Germany, taking first place in Saxony-Anhalt. According to exit polls, the party is gaining more than 40% of the vote, while the CDU is in second place with a huge gap of about 18%. The left and the SPD receive about 9% each, the Greens are around 8%, and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union (BSW) is teetering on the verge of entering parliament with 5%. The turnout reached a record 78% for the region. According to preliminary calculations, the AfD receives 39 mandates in the Landtag — it may not have enough seats to reach an absolute majority.

The redistribution of the votes of the parties that did not pass gives the right a theoretical chance to take full control of the local parliament without even crossing the 50% barrier. However, this electoral triumph is sure to provoke a new wave of pressure on the AfD from political opponents.

— Attempts to isolate the AfG will continue. But this is a sign of helplessness. As long as the traditional parties do not solve the country's problems, they will lose voters," Bundestag deputy from the AFD Steffen Kotre told Izvestia.

The main obstacle for the AFD is the so—called firewall, that is, the categorical refusal of other political forces from any coalitions with the right. Because of this isolation, the party risks remaining without real power even after winning the elections. Chancellor Friedrich Merz also strongly criticizes her. A week before the vote, he once again ruled out any cooperation with AFG and warned that their triumph would scare investors away from the region.

Another lever of pressure on the party is its official status: starting in 2023, the local office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the regional branch of the AFD as "right-wing extremist." The right-wing leadership is now challenging this decision in court.

Such measures go beyond the usual political competition. The struggle should be conducted at the level of discussions, and not through attempts to oust opponents from the electoral field, Matthias Mosdorf, a member of the Bundestag from the AFD, told Izvestia. He stressed that the future of the party should be determined solely by voters.

— The stronger the AfD becomes in the elections, the more difficult it is for its political opponents to adhere to the previous strategy of isolation. It is Saxony-Anhalt that can show that the so-called firewall is increasingly in conflict with the will of the democratic majority. Therefore, I think it is likely that in parallel with the political successes of the AFD, the discussion about banning the party will be intensified again," he said.

The pressure on the right is accompanied by a harsh media campaign. For example, Der Spiegel put Ulrich Sigmund, head of the AFD branch in Saxony-Anhalt, on the cover with the headline "Germany's most dangerous Man." The editor-in-chief of the publication explained that the coming of this politician to power will change the situation not only in the region, but throughout the country. However, Sigmund himself even used the publication in his campaign: he called it "the best advertisement" and willingly signed copies of the magazine for supporters.

The last vote was a serious stress test for the German political system, said Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at MGIMO. The AfD gets a chance to prove that it is capable not only of criticizing, but also of managing effectively — this is what causes the main concern of the Berlin authorities. In addition, German regions have broad autonomy and are represented in the Bundesrat. Success in Saxony-Anhalt opens up new levers of influence for the party on the national agenda.

Experts from the Polish Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) predict that the regional government, led by the AFD, will begin to develop ties with Moscow on its own. Such a step could undermine Germany's unified foreign policy and defense policy, as well as complicate NATO operations and data exchange between intelligence agencies.

What does the result mean for the Merz government

The failure in Saxony-Anhalt is not the only threat to Friedrich Merz's cabinet. On September 20, voting will take place in Berlin and Mecklenburg—Vorpommern. In the latter region, the AfD is also confidently leading: opinion polls predict parties with 35-37% of the vote. The SPD, led by Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig, is gaining 28-32% there, while the CDU is content with a modest 8-10%.

In Berlin, the situation looks more mosaic-like. According to the latest data, the CDU can count on 21%, the Left Party — on 19%, and the AFD and the Greens receive 18% each. Sociologists assign only 11% to the ruling SPD. The German capital has traditionally been considered a stronghold of leftist forces, recalls Artyom Sokolov. According to him, the growing popularity of the AFD even in Berlin signals a fundamental shift in the entire German political system.

The growing popularity of the AfD is also spurring pressure from Berlin. Many voters perceive these actions as an element of political struggle and an attempt by systemic forces to weaken key critics, Artyom Sokolov emphasizes. At the same time, the right is already leading at the national level: according to the latest data, 28% of citizens are ready to vote for the AFD in the Bundestag elections, while the CDU/CSU bloc would gain only 21%.

For Moscow, the electoral successes of the AFD are important because of the party's position: the right consistently advocates the lifting of sanctions, the restoration of economic ties and the return to purchases of Russian energy resources. During the campaign, Ulrich Sigmund openly called for abandoning the sanctions pressure. And although the regional government has no right to lift federal restrictions, strengthening the AfD's position may eventually force Berlin to reconsider its course towards the Russian Federation.

The September vote may determine the vector of the internal policy of the whole of Germany. If the right wins a series of victories in the east of the country, the usual "firewall" risks bursting at the seams. In this case, the systemic parties will have to decide how long they can keep their main competitors out of real power.

The chain of CDU defeats in the land elections could provoke an internal party crisis and force Friedrich Merz to resign. If the September vote records the failure of the Christian Democrats, the chancellor's position within his own bloc will be undermined.