The United States and Venezuela have signed the "largest oil deal in history." What you need to know

The United States and Venezuela have agreed on a large-scale oil project, which US President Donald Trump called the largest deal in the history of the industry. Washington expects to gain control over the development of 17 strategic fields, and Caracas expects to attract more than $100 billion in private investment to rebuild the oil infrastructure. Against this background, Venezuela is considering the possibility of leaving OPEC, which will allow it to increase production more freely in the future. What the agreement provides for, who benefits from it and how it can affect the global oil market is in the Izvestia article.

Oil control

• The United States and Venezuela have agreed on a large-scale joint project, which US President Donald Trump has already called the largest oil deal in world history. As part of the agreement, Washington gains control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves (about 20% of the country's oil reserves).

• The project provides for the development of 17 strategic deposits with the participation of private companies. Through the deal, the Venezuelan authorities expect to attract over $100 billion in private capital, as well as receive more than $209 billion in tax revenues, which are planned to be used to restore the economy.

• The White House emphasizes that American taxpayers will not have to finance this initiative. For the United States, the agreement should increase the available oil volumes and strengthen the raw material base. The Trump administration expects that the increase in supplies will help reduce the cost of gasoline in the country in the future.

A barrel of discord: Venezuela is thinking about leaving OPEC

Caracas may abandon the cartel for the sake of increasing oil production and rapprochement with Washington.

• For Venezuela, the agreement is related to the restoration of the oil industry: interim President Delcy Rodriguez expects to modernize the infrastructure and create additional jobs. The agreement appeared after the change of leadership in the country and the resumption of diplomatic contacts between Washington and Caracas.

Possible exit from OPEC

• Against this background, Venezuela is considering the possibility of leaving OPEC: this issue was discussed in Caracas during negotiations between the Venezuelan leadership and American representatives. The potential renunciation of membership may become part of the country's new course after the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro by the Americans and the change of power.

• Currently, Venezuela is not actually bound by OPEC restrictions due to the difficult state of the oil industry, which has caused a sharp drop in production, three times compared to the 1990s. However, in the long run, the exit will give Caracas more freedom to increase production without cartel quotas. This is especially important against the background of plans to expand production with the participation of American operators.

• For OPEC, such a step will have primarily political and symbolic significance. Venezuela was one of the five countries that created the organization in 1960. Her possible departure after the UAE's recent decision to leave the cartel could seriously damage the association's reputation and influence. At the same time, there is almost no immediate effect on the global oil market. Venezuela's production now stands at about 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day, so the country's withdrawal from OPEC by itself will not lead to a drastic change in global supplies of raw materials.

Right to pump: Venezuela aims for top 3 countries in gas production

Does Caracas have the necessary capacity for this and how will Washington look at it?

Oil prospects

• Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves — about 303 billion barrels (19.4% of the global volume). The United States, on the contrary, leads in daily production: the figure reaches a record 13.8 million barrels per day. Until January 2026, the Venezuelan industry remained in deep crisis due to US sanctions and lack of investments.

• Back in the late 1990s, the country produced over 3 million barrels per day, but the destruction of infrastructure led to a drop in production to about 500 thousand barrels in 2020. By the end of 2025, Caracas managed to raise the figure to 1-1.2 million barrels per day, thanks in part to individual eases from Washington and the work of Chevron. The sanctions also forced Venezuela to sell oil through gray schemes with large discounts.

• After the arrest of Nicolas Maduro by the US military and the country's transition to the transitional government of Delcy Rodriguez, the oil industry began to rebuild. Caracas intends to increase production to 1.37–1.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2026.

• American oilfield service companies, including Halliburton, are returning to Venezuela: in August 2026, the country's court restored the company's previously seized assets. In the first months of the year, the United States received more than $13 billion from the sale of Venezuelan oil. The funds are placed in special accounts under the control of Washington.

• In parallel, the development of 17 strategic heavy oil fields is being prepared, control of which has been transferred to the United States. Chevron, ExxonMobil and other companies have to invest about $100 billion: the development is technologically complex, and the refineries and pipelines are worn out. At the same time, Venezuela is preparing to exit OPEC, which in the future will allow it to increase production more freely and weaken the influence of the cartel on world prices.