The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing a period of tension. And here's why
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an increase in tensions in the Asia-Pacific region during the final stage of the Pacific Fleet exercises. Fleet Commander Viktor Liina also noted that the military and political situation in the region is deteriorating due to the growing military presence of Western countries. How the situation in the Pacific Ocean is characterized now and why it has become like this is in the Izvestia article.
Military alliances of the Pacific Ocean
• Since the early 2000s, the Asia-Pacific region has become the same arena for military-bloc confrontations as Europe was in the second half of the 20th century. The countries of the Far East, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and America are gradually increasing their military presence and forming alliances, trying to strengthen their defense and offensive capabilities. This leads to an increase in tension and provokes conflicts that, after decades of relative calm, may flare up again in the Asia-Pacific region.
• In 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) was organized, which included the United States, Japan, Australia and India. Although this association is not a military bloc in the strict sense, the QUAD participants are engaged in a dialogue on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, which cannot but include a discussion of military aspects. At the same time, the QUAD's goal is to contain China's aspirations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
• A full-fledged military partnership is the AUKUS alliance, created in 2021, consisting of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its main goal is to strengthen the Western military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and the key project was the transfer of technology to Australia to create nuclear submarines. As in the case of the QUAD, AUKUS is seen as one of China's deterrents.
• The United States also has bilateral allied defense treaties with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Such agreements provide for the deployment of American troops and joint defense in the event of military conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region. There is also a "triple alliance" between the United States, Japan and South Korea, which, although it does not have a clear structure, is an important factor provoking tension in the Far East.
Tension zones
• The main military-bloc confrontation is currently taking place between the United States and its allies and China, along with the DPRK. It is with him that the three main points of tension in the Asia-Pacific region are connected, because of which countries are striving to increase their military presence and build coalitions to spread their influence. The conflict scenario over Taiwan looks the most dangerous. China considers the island to be its own and vehemently rejects any claim to its sovereignty, while the United States deliberately maintains strategic uncertainty around it. They both recognize Beijing's claims to Taiwan and arm the island's defense forces, effectively building allied relations with it as a full-fledged state.
• Although China is quite restrained on the world stage and, with all its military might, stays away from any conflicts, it is with regard to Taiwan that it sends constant signals of its readiness to reverse the status quo and take full control of the island. In response, the United States, and more recently Japan, declare that they will not tolerate a full-fledged invasion and will be ready to defend it. Both nuclear powers are trying to prevent an open military confrontation, which makes the Chinese blockade of the island a more likely option. This level of conflict makes the possible U.S. response uncertain. They can either perceive Beijing's actions with hostility and prepare a military response, or refuse to further defend the island, preferring to move on to the negotiation process, especially due to the acute shortage of ammunition caused by the war with Iran.
• Another possible site of the US-China confrontation is the Korean Peninsula. There are historical tensions between the DPRK on the one hand and South Korea and Japan on the other, which they cannot resolve. The situation is aggravated by the nuclear weapons that Pyongyang possesses. So far, it is difficult to expect that the conflict between the two Koreas will lead to the involvement of their "senior" allies. It is beneficial for China to keep the DPRK as a buffer zone, while the United States is content with having two allies in the region, so the current situation is optimal for them. However, there is still the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation, which may be triggered by missile tests, incidents on the land border (the only one between the American and Chinese spheres of influence) that go beyond the scope of permitted exercises. In the case of the Korean Peninsula, such incidents will be perceived not as an unfortunate accident, but as a signal for action with military consequences.
• The situation in the South China Sea is much less talked about, although the interests of several players are also clashing in this region, linked by a tangle of contradictions. China and the Philippines have long been arguing over water areas of great economic importance. Beijing's claims against Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei are periodically voiced. The United States uses China's claims to justify a military presence in the region and to deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines. Periodically, coast guard vessels and warships are already clashing in the South China Sea, which have not yet resulted in a heated confrontation, but can lead to it at any moment.
Influence on Russia
• At first glance, it seems that the contradictions between the United States and China, which have made the Asia-Pacific region one of the most tense regions in the world, do not concern Russia. However, their influence goes beyond the three most conflicting points. Although Russia does not fear an American invasion of its Far East, it is concerned about the formation of a unified American military infrastructure that stretches from Japan to Australia through South Korea and the Philippines. The containment of China and the DPRK certainly leads to the restriction of the freedom of action of the Pacific Fleet and the Russian strategic forces, directly affecting security issues.
• The formation of military-political blocs in the Asia-Pacific region is based on the principle of NATO's expansion to the east, and this is an alarming symptom. While the Atlantic Alliance is assigned the role of responsible for the European theater of military operations, forces are being formed in the Pacific Ocean capable of waging a full-fledged military conflict in the Far East. If NATO does not pose a military threat to China and the DPRK due to its remoteness from Europe, then Russia turns out to be the only country squeezed between two pro-American blocs.
• At the same time, Russia's presence in the Asia-Pacific region is a factor reducing the likelihood of an escalation in the region. The United States views Moscow as an ally of Beijing and therefore makes decisions based on this cooperation. In the event of a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean Peninsula, Russia will retain the role of a mediator capable of conducting a dialogue with both sides in view of its own interest in a settlement. Russia's presence in the Far East plays a de-escalating role if no attempt is made to contain it.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
