The battle for the air: what will lead to the crisis of the air defense system in Ukraine

There is a critical situation with air defense systems in Ukraine. Kiev regularly complains that there is nothing to shoot down ballistic missiles with because they have run out of ammunition for Patriot complexes. Vladimir Zelensky claims that the country will soon produce its own anti-missiles, but experts believe that even under the most favorable conditions, production will take years. Izvestia investigated the situation.

What happened

The Russian army regularly reports on attacks on military, logistics, industrial and energy facilities in Ukraine. For example, on August 11, the department reported the destruction of a metallurgical plant in Zaporizhia and warehouses in Kiev, where components for drones and ready-made drones were stored.

A day earlier, the Odessa thermal power plant, seven electrical substations and port infrastructure in Odessa, Chernomorsk and other cities were attacked. It is also noted that in the first week of August, the Russian armed forces carried out two massive and 12 group strikes using precision weapons and drones.

Photo: TASS

Numerous outside observers say that Russia is breaking its own records for air attacks. Western media, based on open data, write that in July, the Russian Armed Forces launched 126 ballistic missiles, which was the highest figure for the entire conflict. Together with the S-400 anti-aircraft missiles and hypersonic Zircons, the number reaches two hundred.

At the same time, the Ukrainian air defense forces allegedly shot down either 10 or 29 missiles, which in any case is less than 15% of the July salvo. According to the same information, 70 ballistic missiles have already landed in Ukraine in the first 10 days of August, and only one was shot down by Ukrainian rocket launchers.

In Kiev, they explain that they have been experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition for Patriot air defense systems since the spring. Volodymyr Zelensky reported that in the first half of this year, Ukraine received three times fewer anti-missiles than in the same period last year. "We have such a shortage now, it can't get any worse," he said.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stressed that there was nothing to shoot down ballistics with, so Ukrainians should run for cover at any threat. Against this background, the Ukrainian Air Force stopped publishing statistics on launched and downed missiles. Apparently, this data doesn't make sense anymore.

Photo: TASS/FILIP SINGER

The speaker of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, confirmed that the air defense forces were on "starvation rations" due to supply problems. At the same time, he urged the Ukrainian media not to report on the failures of the security guards. "You Google "Air Force" and [you see] — "not a single missile was shot down." Thousands and thousands of links. If you think it will make someone feel better.… There is no need to play along with the enemy and escalate such headlines," the Ukrainian military asked.

What will happen next

Ukraine is actively trying to obtain ammunition for Patriot complexes from the United States and European allies. In May, Zelensky publicly asked Washington for a license to produce ammunition for air defense systems. "The United States produces an insufficient number of missiles, which can lead to crises in various regions of the world. 60-65 rockets per month is nothing compared to the current challenges. We need to expand production," he said.

In July, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump agreed to this. "One bird sang to me that we would give them the right to produce Patriot. We'll show them how it's done, it's a very technically difficult thing, but I think you can do it, and you can do it quickly," he said at a joint press conference with Zelensky.

Photo: TASS/dpa/picture-alliance/Jens Büttner

However, Washington's position changed in early August. "This is a completely exceptional weapon, we have to be a little careful about who we license. We don't actually license the equipment," Trump said in an interview with the Financial Times. Later it became known that the American leader refused to hand over 300 ready-made interceptor missiles for Patriot.

Western media claim that the United States itself is faced with a shortage of air defense systems due to the conflict in the Middle East. In addition, American military-industrial corporations are afraid of competition with Ukrainians, because they can establish cheaper production. Finally, Washington is worried about a possible leak of secret technologies to Russia.

Interestingly, in Ukraine, they preferred not to notice the latest statements from the American side. Zelensky reported that the transfer of the license was allegedly agreed upon by the President of the United States and other important government institutions. At the same time, he noted that the deployment of production in any case will take at least a year due to bureaucratic procedures, that is, there is no talk of short-term assistance anyway.

Photo: Global Look Prerss/Sha Dati/XinHua

Things are not so simple with Ukraine's European allies either. In July, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte promised that the bloc's countries would buy air defense missiles from the United States and then transfer them to Kiev, but nothing has been heard about the initiative since. In turn, the European Commission called on EU countries to send all remnants of anti-missiles to Ukraine.

However, the situation has only worsened recently. Ukraine's neighbors are increasingly worried about their own security, and therefore they are more cautious about the transfer of interceptors. Poland, in particular, agreed in July to send five antimissile missiles to its neighbors, but this caused a big scandal and a wave of criticism of the authorities from the opposition. The situation is the same in other Baltic and Eastern European countries.

Against this background, Western experts began to talk about the fact that Kiev has less and less room for maneuver. Bloomberg writes that there are several options for the development of events: Ukraine may still find ammunition somewhere, or it may continue to fight in kamikaze mode, that is, with a guaranteed severe winter. The third option is to make concessions and agree to Russia's demands for the withdrawal of troops from Donbass.

What the experts say

Military specialist Vasily Dandykin, in a conversation with Izvestia, calls Ukraine's prospects gloomy. In his opinion, the Western allies will not be able to help the Ukrainian air defense in the near future, because they themselves do not have anti-missiles.

— They won't give you a license either, because they're afraid of technology leaks to Russia. In fact, they are afraid for nothing — our S-400 and S-500 are more effective than the Patriot. In Kiev, they will try to create something of their own, but they will not be able to make full-fledged air defense systems. Their prospects in such conditions are extremely sad," the expert believes.

Photo: TASS/Krasilnikov Stanislav

However, even in the current critical situation, the Ukrainian authorities are unlikely to agree to Russia's demands, says Alexander Dudchak, a leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries.

— Zelensky is satisfied with everything. He himself provoked the escalation when he gave the command to strike at Russian refineries and warehouses. Now Ukraine is getting retaliatory strikes, but this does not bother the Western allies. It is important for them that the fighting continues, they do not care about the needs and fears of the Ukrainian population," he explains.